Article 3216

Title of the article

ANALYZING THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE
RELIABILITY THEORY OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

Authors

Litvinenko Ruslan Sergeevich, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of electrotechnical complexes and systems, Kazan State Power Engineering University (420066, 51 Krasnoselskaya street, Kazan, Russia), litrus@km.ru
Idijatullin Rinat Gaisovich, doctor of technical sciences, professor,  sub-department of electrotechnical complexes and systems, Kazan State Power Engineering University (420066, 51 Krasnoselskaya street, Kazan, Russia), litrus277@yandex.ru
Auhadeev Aver Erikovich, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of electrotechnical complexes and systems, Kazan State Power Engineering University (420066, 51 Krasnoselskaya street, Kazan, Russia), auhadeevkgma@rambler.ru

Index UDK

62 –192 + 519.248

Abstract

Background. In practice, operation of technical systems in most cases have to deal with stochastic (random) processes, when the function reflects the argument with a certain probability. Most completely random variable described by a probability distribution, the basic one in the theory of reliability of technical systems is exponential (exponential) distribution. In the face of uncertainty about the law of distribution of time of occurrence of failures due to small amounts of statistical data, which usually happens in the initial stages of technology development, the researcher has to decide on the choice of prior model reliability based on previous operating experience of prototypes or analogues. Systematization of information on the practical use of exponential distribution in predicting and assessing the reliability of various technical systems is an important scientific task.
Materials and methods. In the above material is the systematization of the information publishedin domestic and foreign literature, and representing the analysis results of model and experimental studies of reliability of equipment, as well as statistical data obtained during operation.
Results. Presents theoretical information on the use of exponential law of reliability theory can be used as a first approximation and is subject to obligatory specification, using different criteria of testing hypotheses, increasing the volume of statistical data in subsequent tests.
Conclusions. It is necessary to have sufficient grounds for application of exponential distribution law, like any other. Therefore, the article may be useful for researchers in the early stages of development or modernization of technical systems, as a priori information to build the models and criteria used to ensure and control the reliability.

Key words

reliability, distribution, operation time, probability, density of distribution, stage, expected value.

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Дата создания: 27.09.2016 14:27
Дата обновления: 29.09.2016 14:44